A KFF analysis shows Medicare beneficiaries staying in stand-alone Part D plans may face higher premiums in 2027. The average monthly cost is projected to rise 50%, from $34 in 2026 to $51 in 2027.
The increase would widen the gap between stand-alone drug plans and Medicare Advantage plans that include prescription drug coverage, with KFF projecting that drug coverage through Medicare Advantage plans will average $9 a month in 2027, compared with $51 for stand-alone plans.
KFF analysts examined premiums and cost-sharing requirements for Part D coverage in 2027 and found that the average beneficiary has 28 Medicare Advantage prescription drug plans and 9 stand-alone prescription drug plans to choose from, with varying costs associated with these different options.
KFF noted that the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) projected a much smaller increase in the national average Part D premium, from $35 to $36, but did not explain its calculation methodology.
Among stand-alone plan enrollees who do not receive low-income subsidies, 76%, or 10.4 million people, would pay higher premiums if they keep their current plans, with about 2.4 million seeing their monthly premiums increase by more than $50.
This is a sharp increase from 2026, when only 38,000 enrollees faced monthly premium increases exceeding $50, according to KFF, which attributed the change to the Trump administration’s decision to discontinue the Part D Premium Stabilization Demonstration after 2026.
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Open enrollment runs through December 7, and KFF analysts warned that beneficiaries who do not switch to lower-cost plans during this period could face significantly higher premiums, with Juliette Cubanski, a vice president and director of the Program on Medicare Policy at KFF, stating that “There are relatively low-premium PDP options, but people facing large premium increases need to take action if they want to avoid paying significantly more.”
If stand-alone plan enrollees who are not receiving Part D Low-Income Subsidies keep their current plan in 2027, more than half, or 7.5 million people, will pay premiums of less than $20 per month, but nearly 30%, or 3.9 million people, will pay at least $100 per month, according to KFF’s analysis.
Average monthly premiums for the eight national stand-alone plans are projected to range from around $6 to $204 in 2027, with the two lowest-premium plans being Centene’s Wellcare Value Script Rx and Wellcare Classic, and the plans with the highest average monthly premiums being United’s AARP Medicare Rx Preferred and Humana Premier Rx Plan.
The analysis also finds that most Part D enrollees will face a deductible of several hundred dollars for drug coverage in 2027, including 85% of Medicare Advantage plan enrollees and virtually all stand-alone plan enrollees, with the average Part D deductible in 2027 projected to be $643 for stand-alone plan enrollees and $489 for Medicare Advantage plan enrollees.
Most Part D enrollees will also face coinsurance rather than fixed copayments for preferred-brand and non-preferred drugs, potentially making their out-of-pocket costs less predictable, with virtually all stand-alone plan enrollees facing median coinsurance of 25% for preferred brands and 35% for non-preferred drugs, according to KFF.
